Fund Modeling

Simulate the exits. See the whole range.

Run your fund 4,000 times on assumptions from your own rounds. See the full range, then test a scenario.

Fund Forecasting

Recompute from my bookSaveForkRun

Scenario Fund III base · construction model derived from your 95 financing rounds

Outcome distribution

4,000 paths · correlated market factor on · priors fitted from your book · seed 4471

4,000 paths

Deterministic TVPI2.34xthe point estimate

Simulated median2.46x+0.12x vs point

P10 — P901.1x – 4.8xwide, and honestly so

P(TVPI < 1x)8.3%nobody else answers this

Fund III base

Exit assumptions

by stage

Stage	Graduation	Exit value
Seed	42%	$49.3mn=19
Series A	37%n=19	$160.2mn=37
Series B	70%	$486.2mn=13
Series C	75%	$1.15bnn=9
Series D	75%	$1.75bn

From your bookMarket priorAgent judgementYou

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From your rounds to a range of outcomes.

Exit assumptions from your own rounds.

Floom builds stage-by-stage assumptions from your own rounds, and shows where each number came from.

Example: Build Fund III’s exit assumptions from our rounds.
Result: Graduation rates and exit values by stage, each with its source.

From your bookMarket priorAgent judgementYou

Stage	Pre-money	Round size	Post-money	ESOP	Graduation	Exit rate	Mo. to next	Exit value
Seed	$10.3mn=14	$2.98mn=14	$13.3m	10%	42%	0%	22mon=14	$49.3mn=19
Series A	$49.3mn=19	$13.8mn=19	$63.1m	9.6%	37%n=19	5%	20mon=19	$160.2mn=37
Series B	$160.2mn=37	$34.6mn=37	$194.8m	7.4%	70%	10%	21mon=37	$486.2mn=13
Series C	$486.2mn=13	$79.3mn=13	$565.5m	5.7%	75%	15%	20mo	$1.15bnn=9
Series D	$1.15bnn=9	$185.0mn=9	$1.34bn	5%	75%	20%	20mo	$1.75bn

18 from your book · 16 market prior · 1 judgement · 0 locked

Provenance

Seed · pre-money = $10.3m

Median pre-money across your 14 seed rounds.

financing_rounds · 14 rounds · n = 14

Provenance

Seed · graduation rate = 42%

Your realized Seed→A graduation is 36% (5 of 14). Fourteen is a thin sample, so I shrank toward the 52% sector prior to give 42%.

judgement · shrunk toward prior · n = 14

Provenance

Seed · post-money = $13.3m

Computed identity — pre-money plus round size. Nothing types into it, so the two can never drift apart.

engine · not stored

Run the fund 4,000 times.

Press Run for 4,000 simulations that add up to a distribution, not a single number.

Example: Run Fund III.
Result: 4,000 outcomes, drawn as a fund TVPI distribution.

Read the range, not one number.

See the median, the P10 to P90 range and the chance of returning less than 1x.

Example: How likely is Fund III to return less than its capital?
Result: 8.3% of runs, plus the scenarios worth testing next.

Outcome distribution

Fund III base · 4,000 paths · correlated market factor on · priors fitted from your book · seed 4471

Deterministic TVPI2.34xthe point estimate

Simulated median2.46x+0.12x vs point

P10 — P901.1x – 4.8xwide, and honestly so

P(TVPI < 1x)8.3%nobody else answers this

Forecasting agent

Done. Deterministic TVPI 2.34x on 42 initial deals. The simulation puts the median at 2.46x with a P10–P90 of 1.1x–4.8x, and P(TVPI < 1x) = 8.3%.

Market cooled — cut valuations 30%Make it more seed-ledIs n=14 enough at Seed?

Test an exit scenario against the base.

Change one exit assumption, rerun, and see both distributions on one chart.

Market cools

Exit values cut 30%, anchored off your own medians.

Market cooled

↳ forked from Fund III base · exit values cut 30%

Run

Seed exit$34.5mSeries A exit$112.1mSeries B exit$340.3m

Fund III baseMarket cooled

	Base	Market cooled
Deterministic TVPI	2.34x	1.68x
Simulated median	2.46x	1.77x
P10 — P90	1.1x – 4.8x	0.8x – 3.5x
P(TVPI < 1x)	8.3%	17.0%

Fewer graduate

Fewer seed companies reach their Series A.

Fewer graduate

↳ forked from Fund III base · Seed graduation set to 36%

Run

Seed graduation36%was 42%

Fund III baseFewer graduate

	Base	Fewer graduate
Deterministic TVPI	2.34x	2.01x
Simulated median	2.46x	2.10x
P10 — P90	1.1x – 4.8x	0.9x – 4.2x
P(TVPI < 1x)	8.3%	12.6%

Bigger exits

Later-stage exits worth a quarter more.

Bigger exits

↳ forked from Fund III base · exit values from Series B up 25%

Run

Series B exit$607.8mSeries C exit$1.44bnSeries D exit$2.19bn

Fund III baseBigger exits

	Base	Bigger exits
Deterministic TVPI	2.34x	2.69x
Simulated median	2.46x	2.83x
P10 — P90	1.1x – 4.8x	1.3x – 5.5x
P(TVPI < 1x)	8.3%	5.1%

Carry the scenario into the next conversation.

Scenarios keep their assumptions and sources, for use in the Excel and AI workflows available to you.

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Forecasting agent

Done. Deterministic TVPI 2.01x on 42 initial deals. The simulation puts the median at 2.10x with a P10–P90 of 0.9x–4.2x, and P(TVPI < 1x) = 12.6%.

Opened Fund III base — variant 1, saved 12 Oct 2026, 10:42. Its numbers are exactly as they were when you ran it — nothing has been silently re-derived underneath you.

Market cooled — cut valuations 30%Make it more seed-ledIs n=14 enough at Seed?

Fund terms

Committed150mInitial check1.5mReserve ratio45%Mgmt fee2%

Saved scenarios

Fund III base — variant 1

Open

↳ forked from Fund III base · saved 12 Oct 2026, 10:42

TVPI 2.01x · P10–P90 0.9–4.2x · P(<1x) 12.6%

Fund III base

Open

saved 12 Oct 2026, 10:31

TVPI 2.34x · P10–P90 1.1–4.8x · P(<1x) 8.3%

A model with investment context.

Starts from Fund Operations records and reviewed Deal Intelligence, with each scenario tied to its investments.

Fund OperationsPositions, activity and AI record actions Explore Fund Operations Deal IntelligenceReviewed terms and investment proceeds Explore Deal Intelligence

Questions

Explore your fund’s next move.

Run your fund 4,000 times and test the scenario that worries you.

Book a demo

Simulate the exits. See the whole range.

From your rounds to a range of outcomes.

Exit assumptions from your own rounds.

Run the fund 4,000 times.

Read the range, not one number.

Test an exit scenario against the base.

Carry the scenario into the next conversation.

A model with investment context.

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Can I model a new fund and an existing portfolio?

Can I change the assumptions directly?

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Explore your fund’s next move.